The sky is not falling

Evolution is a most awesome force, and it is seldom, if ever, benign. Right now, mankind tops the food chain, but for how long is anyone's guess. Like the characters in the Jurassic Park epics, we will fall and be replaced someday, probably by something that the current flea products don't protect against. The Earth is neither our friend nor our enemy. It just is what it is, providing us with sustenance on one hand and catastrophic devastation on the other.

We small animal practitioners must recognize that our small animal practice climate is changing, just as our large animal colleagues did a decade or two ago. The sky is not falling, but the economic weather report certainly looks ominous.

I believe that 2007-2010 will be a terrible period of adjustment for all practices. This will be a time of rebirth, along with the usual gratis accompaniments of birth, including morning sickness, nausea, turmoil, intermittent kicking and the painful emergence of a new era of practice.

Like the great Chicago and San Francisco fires, like the devastation of the Gulf Coast, the new structures that emerge will ride the expanding wave of technology into profitability.

Reality is about to set in; the reality that all practitioners have subconsciously been trying to avoid because of the political unpopularity that simply oozes from it.

From 1960 and thereafter, we Americans just stopped making human babies as fast as we did in the '40s and '50s, and we are now starting to pay the price.

Only about 36 percent of all American babies grow up to be pet owners who take their pets to veterinarians. That's not a rule, but it's pretty close to one. Here's another almost rule: The other 64 percent, often people who can barely scrape by to feed their families, do not spend a heck of a lot on pets. This is a social fact that we as a profession have never been able to comfortably digest. Our practices really do depend on relatively wealthy people for success.

There are currently 65 million dogs in the United States. According to the 2003-2004 National Pet Owners Survey, their owners average about $263 each on veterinary related expenses. There are also 77.7 million cats in the United States, and their owners purportedly spend some $113 each on veterinary related expenses. Add it up; that's $17 billion for dogs and $8.8 billion on cats. Divided among about 41,000 exclusively small animal and mostly small animal practitioners, that is some $629,000 each, which should net each practitioner an average of about $188,000 each before taxes.

The facts show that veterinarians average about half of that. The first reason for the discrepancy is that many non-affluent people don't take surveys, and the second reason is that a huge number of dogs and cats survive on human leftover food, not gaudily packaged supermarket pet offerings.

Another big (really big) fact is that at least 20 million dogs and cats never ever see a veterinarian in their lifetime, and millions more will get only an initial exam at a humane society or spay/neuter clinic. The guiding rule always has been 60 percent of households have pets, but only 36 percent of these pets get regular veterinary care. That means 64 percent do not get veterinary care. At least 9 million dogs and cats don't get vaccinated, are not on worm or heartworm prevention and will live until they die, only to be replaced by another pet that will live without medical care.

Why should any of this be surprising? More than 40 million Americans have no medical care, and many more are provided for only by tax dollars.

There are 104 million households in the United States, and 49 percent of these households have no discretionary income whatsoever. Our veterinary practice income comes solely from discretionary income, or the money that is left over after the essentials, such as food, clothing and shelter) have been taken care of. Another term we need to apply is disposable income. That's the amount of income left to an individual after taxes have been paid, available for spending and saving.

That's the big catch; 49 percent of Americans have nothing left over to save and nothing to spend on a pet. There are Almost 300 million Americans, and guess what? More than 145 million have no pets. They are lucky just to have a place to sleep, something to eat and something to wear. They cannot spend on a pet what they do not have. Many have internal parasites if you want to call those pets, but that is probably for a different column. These people were never your clients.

Perhaps Al Qaeda is involved in a humongous conspiracy to deprive Americans pets of care and veterinarians of income. As the price of energy inches up, largely increasing security costs, more and more Americans will have less and less discretionary or disposable money for pets. Certainly more and more pets are being given up to humane societies for disposal.

Furthermore, more clients are ignoring our mailed health reminders than those who adhere. The number of client transactions in most areas of the country is dropping like hot rocks. Typically, your client transactions are dropping 5 to 15 percent each year.

That's bad only when we are not prepared for the drop. When we are prepared, it could qualify as the best thing to happen to our profession in years. Read why next month.

Dr. Snyder, a well-known consultant, publishes Veterinary Productivity, a newsletter for practice productivity and is available for in-practice consultation. He can be reached at P.O. Box 189, Hebron, KY 41048-0189; (800) 292-7995; vethelp@insightbb.com Fax: (859) 534-5265